Catalog of nonlinear specifications

Investigate of nonlinear specifications for the travel time variables:

  • linear specification,

  • Box-Cox transform,

  • power series,

for a total of 3 specifications. See Bierlaire and Ortelli (2023).

author:

Michel Bierlaire, EPFL

date:

Thu Jul 13 21:31:54 2023

import biogeme.biogeme as bio
import biogeme.biogeme_logging as blog
from biogeme import models
from biogeme.expressions import Expression, Beta
from biogeme.models import boxcox
from biogeme.catalog import Catalog
from biogeme.results import compile_estimation_results, pareto_optimal

See Data preparation for Swissmetro.

from swissmetro_data import (
    database,
    CHOICE,
    SM_AV,
    CAR_AV_SP,
    TRAIN_AV_SP,
    TRAIN_TT_SCALED,
    TRAIN_COST_SCALED,
    SM_TT_SCALED,
    SM_COST_SCALED,
    CAR_TT_SCALED,
    CAR_CO_SCALED,
)

logger = blog.get_screen_logger(level=blog.INFO)

Parameters to be estimated.

ASC_CAR = Beta('ASC_CAR', 0, None, None, 0)
ASC_TRAIN = Beta('ASC_TRAIN', 0, None, None, 0)
B_TIME = Beta('B_TIME', 0, None, 0, 0)
B_COST = Beta('B_COST', 0, None, 0, 0)

Non linear specifications for the travel time.

Parameter of the Box-Cox transform.

ell_travel_time = Beta('lambda_travel_time', 1, -10, 10, 0)

Coefficients of the power series.

square_tt_coef = Beta('square_tt_coef', 0, None, None, 0)
cube_tt_coef = Beta('cube_tt_coef', 0, None, None, 0)

Function calculation the power series.

def power_series(the_variable: Expression) -> Expression:
    """Generate the expression of a polynomial of degree 3

    :param the_variable: variable of the polynomial
    """
    return (
        the_variable
        + square_tt_coef * the_variable**2
        + cube_tt_coef * the_variable * the_variable**3
    )

Train travel time

Linear specification.

linear_train_tt = TRAIN_TT_SCALED

Box-Cox transform.

boxcox_train_tt = boxcox(TRAIN_TT_SCALED, ell_travel_time)

Power series.

power_train_tt = power_series(TRAIN_TT_SCALED)

Definition of the catalog.

train_tt_catalog = Catalog.from_dict(
    catalog_name='train_tt_catalog',
    dict_of_expressions={
        'linear': linear_train_tt,
        'boxcox': boxcox_train_tt,
        'power': power_train_tt,
    },
)

Swissmetro travel time

Linear specification.

linear_sm_tt = SM_TT_SCALED

Box-Cox transform.

boxcox_sm_tt = boxcox(SM_TT_SCALED, ell_travel_time)

Power series.

power_sm_tt = power_series(SM_TT_SCALED)

Definition of the catalog. Note that the controller is the same as for train.

sm_tt_catalog = Catalog.from_dict(
    catalog_name='sm_tt_catalog',
    dict_of_expressions={
        'linear': linear_sm_tt,
        'boxcox': boxcox_sm_tt,
        'power': power_sm_tt,
    },
    controlled_by=train_tt_catalog.controlled_by,
)

Car travel time

Linear specification.

linear_car_tt = CAR_TT_SCALED

Box-Cox transform.

boxcox_car_tt = boxcox(CAR_TT_SCALED, ell_travel_time)

Power series.

power_car_tt = power_series(CAR_TT_SCALED)

Definition of the catalog. Note that the controller is the same as for train.

car_tt_catalog = Catalog.from_dict(
    catalog_name='car_tt_catalog',
    dict_of_expressions={
        'linear': linear_car_tt,
        'boxcox': boxcox_car_tt,
        'power': power_car_tt,
    },
    controlled_by=train_tt_catalog.controlled_by,
)

Definition of the utility functions.

V1 = ASC_TRAIN + B_TIME * train_tt_catalog + B_COST * TRAIN_COST_SCALED
V2 = B_TIME * sm_tt_catalog + B_COST * SM_COST_SCALED
V3 = ASC_CAR + B_TIME * car_tt_catalog + B_COST * CAR_CO_SCALED

Associate utility functions with the numbering of alternatives.

V = {1: V1, 2: V2, 3: V3}

Associate the availability conditions with the alternatives.

av = {1: TRAIN_AV_SP, 2: SM_AV, 3: CAR_AV_SP}

Definition of the model. This is the contribution of each observation to the log likelihood function.

logprob = models.loglogit(V, av, CHOICE)

Create the Biogeme object.

the_biogeme = bio.BIOGEME(database, logprob)
the_biogeme.modelName = 'b02nonlinear'
the_biogeme.generate_html = False
the_biogeme.generate_pickle = False
File biogeme.toml has been parsed.

Estimate the parameters.

dict_of_results = the_biogeme.estimate_catalog()
Estimating 3 models.
File biogeme.toml has been parsed.
*** Initial values of the parameters are obtained from the file __b02nonlinear_000000.iter
Cannot read file __b02nonlinear_000000.iter. Statement is ignored.
Optimization algorithm: hybrid Newton/BFGS with simple bounds [simple_bounds]
** Optimization: Newton with trust region for simple bounds
Iter.         ASC_CAR       ASC_TRAIN          B_COST          B_TIME     Function    Relgrad   Radius      Rho
    0           -0.49           -0.92           -0.88           -0.67      5.4e+03      0.041       10      1.1   ++
    1           -0.18           -0.73              -1            -1.2      5.3e+03     0.0072    1e+02      1.1   ++
    2           -0.16            -0.7            -1.1            -1.3      5.3e+03    0.00018    1e+03        1   ++
    3           -0.16            -0.7            -1.1            -1.3      5.3e+03    1.1e-07    1e+03        1   ++
Results saved in file b02nonlinear_000000.html
Results saved in file b02nonlinear_000000.pickle
File biogeme.toml has been parsed.
*** Initial values of the parameters are obtained from the file __b02nonlinear_000001.iter
Cannot read file __b02nonlinear_000001.iter. Statement is ignored.
Optimization algorithm: hybrid Newton/BFGS with simple bounds [simple_bounds]
** Optimization: Newton with trust region for simple bounds
Iter.         ASC_CAR       ASC_TRAIN          B_COST          B_TIME lambda_travel_t     Function    Relgrad   Radius      Rho
    0            -0.5           -0.71           -0.82              -1             1.7      5.6e+03      0.053        1     0.77    +
    1           -0.35           -0.77            -1.3            -1.7            0.69      5.4e+03      0.032       10        1   ++
    2           0.017           -0.47              -1            -1.7            0.53      5.3e+03      0.002    1e+02     0.96   ++
    3         -0.0043           -0.48            -1.1            -1.7            0.51      5.3e+03    1.3e-05    1e+03        1   ++
    4         -0.0043           -0.48            -1.1            -1.7            0.51      5.3e+03    1.8e-09    1e+03        1   ++
Results saved in file b02nonlinear_000001.html
Results saved in file b02nonlinear_000001.pickle
File biogeme.toml has been parsed.
*** Initial values of the parameters are obtained from the file __b02nonlinear_000002.iter
Cannot read file __b02nonlinear_000002.iter. Statement is ignored.
Optimization algorithm: hybrid Newton/BFGS with simple bounds [simple_bounds]
** Optimization: Newton with trust region for simple bounds
Iter.         ASC_CAR       ASC_TRAIN          B_COST          B_TIME    cube_tt_coef  square_tt_coef     Function    Relgrad   Radius      Rho
    0               0               0               0               0               0               0        7e+03       0.27      0.5    -0.86    -
    1          -0.079            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5               0               0      5.7e+03        7.4        5        1   ++
    2          -0.079            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5               0               0      5.7e+03        7.4      2.5      -10    -
    3          -0.079            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5               0               0      5.7e+03        7.4      1.2     -6.4    -
    4          -0.079            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5               0               0      5.7e+03        7.4     0.62     -3.8    -
    5          -0.079            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5               0               0      5.7e+03        7.4     0.31     -2.3    -
    6          -0.079            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5               0               0      5.7e+03        7.4     0.16     -1.8    -
    7          -0.079            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5               0               0      5.7e+03        7.4    0.078     -1.8    -
    8          -0.079            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5               0               0      5.7e+03        7.4    0.039     -2.2    -
    9          -0.079            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5               0               0      5.7e+03        7.4     0.02     -2.7    -
   10          -0.079            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5               0               0      5.7e+03        7.4   0.0098     -3.2    -
   11          -0.079            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5               0               0      5.7e+03        7.4   0.0049     -3.5    -
   12          -0.079            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5               0               0      5.7e+03        7.4   0.0024     -2.4    -
   13          -0.079            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5               0               0      5.7e+03        7.4   0.0012     -1.6    -
   14          -0.079            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5               0               0      5.7e+03        7.4  0.00061    -0.92    -
   15          -0.079            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5               0               0      5.7e+03        7.4  0.00031    -0.11    -
   16           -0.08            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5        -0.00031         0.00031      5.7e+03        3.5  0.00031     0.69    +
   17           -0.08            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5        -0.00025         0.00061      5.7e+03        1.2  0.00031     0.87    +
   18           -0.08            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5        -0.00027         0.00092      5.7e+03       0.15   0.0031        1   ++
   19           -0.08            -0.5            -0.5            -0.5        -0.00027           0.004      5.7e+03       0.95    0.031        1   ++
   20          -0.086           -0.52            -0.5           -0.53        -0.00041           0.034      5.6e+03       0.27     0.31        1   ++
   21           -0.12           -0.66            -0.6           -0.83         -0.0014            0.26      5.5e+03          3     0.31      0.6    +
   22           -0.11           -0.78           -0.91           -0.98        -0.00018          -0.017      5.3e+03          5     0.31     0.64    +
   23           -0.25            -0.8              -1            -1.3        -7.2e-05          -0.047      5.3e+03          4      3.1      1.1   ++
   24           -0.25            -0.8              -1            -1.3        -7.2e-05          -0.047      5.3e+03          4     0.83      -12    -
   25           -0.25            -0.8              -1            -1.3        -7.2e-05          -0.047      5.3e+03          4     0.41     -1.5    -
   26           -0.11            -0.8            -1.1            -1.7         0.00021           -0.11      5.3e+03        7.3     0.41      0.6    +
   27           0.042            -0.4            -1.1            -2.1         0.00012          -0.088      5.2e+03        2.6     0.41     0.86    +
   28           0.024           -0.41            -1.1            -2.4         0.00023           -0.11      5.2e+03         13     0.41     0.38    +
   29           0.055           -0.39            -1.1            -2.3         0.00019           -0.11      5.2e+03          2      4.1     0.95   ++
   30           0.043           -0.41            -1.1            -2.3         0.00019            -0.1      5.2e+03      0.013       41        1   ++
   31           0.043           -0.41            -1.1            -2.3         0.00019            -0.1      5.2e+03    1.4e-05  4.1e+02        1   ++
   32           0.043           -0.41            -1.1            -2.3         0.00019            -0.1      5.2e+03    5.6e-07  4.1e+02        1   ++
Results saved in file b02nonlinear_000002.html
Results saved in file b02nonlinear_000002.pickle

Number of estimated models.

print(f'A total of {len(dict_of_results)} models have been estimated')
A total of 3 models have been estimated

All estimation results

compiled_results, specs = compile_estimation_results(
    dict_of_results, use_short_names=True
)
compiled_results
Model_000000 Model_000001 Model_000002
Number of estimated parameters 4 5 6
Sample size 6768 6768 6768
Final log likelihood -5331.252007 -5292.095411 -5236.262942
Akaike Information Criterion 10670.504014 10594.190822 10484.525883
Bayesian Information Criterion 10697.783857 10628.290626 10525.445649
ASC_CAR (t-test) -0.155 (-2.66) -0.00462 (-0.0963) 0.0434 (0.965)
ASC_TRAIN (t-test) -0.701 (-8.49) -0.485 (-7.53) -0.409 (-6.8)
B_COST (t-test) -1.08 (-15.9) -1.08 (-15.9) -1.11 (-16)
B_TIME (t-test) -1.28 (-12.3) -1.67 (-21.9) -2.32 (-22.6)
lambda_travel_time (t-test) 0.51 (6.6)
cube_tt_coef (t-test) 0.000193 (7.38)
square_tt_coef (t-test) -0.105 (-21.2)


Glossary

for short_name, spec in specs.items():
    print(f'{short_name}\t{spec}')
Model_000000    train_tt_catalog:linear
Model_000001    train_tt_catalog:boxcox
Model_000002    train_tt_catalog:power

Estimation results of the Pareto optimal models.

pareto_results = pareto_optimal(dict_of_results)
compiled_pareto_results, pareto_specs = compile_estimation_results(
    pareto_results, use_short_names=True
)
No Pareto file has been provided
compiled_pareto_results
Model_000000 Model_000001 Model_000002
Number of estimated parameters 6 5 4
Sample size 6768 6768 6768
Final log likelihood -5236.262942 -5292.095411 -5331.252007
Akaike Information Criterion 10484.525883 10594.190822 10670.504014
Bayesian Information Criterion 10525.445649 10628.290626 10697.783857
ASC_CAR (t-test) 0.0434 (0.965) -0.00462 (-0.0963) -0.155 (-2.66)
ASC_TRAIN (t-test) -0.409 (-6.8) -0.485 (-7.53) -0.701 (-8.49)
B_COST (t-test) -1.11 (-16) -1.08 (-15.9) -1.08 (-15.9)
B_TIME (t-test) -2.32 (-22.6) -1.67 (-21.9) -1.28 (-12.3)
cube_tt_coef (t-test) 0.000193 (7.38)
square_tt_coef (t-test) -0.105 (-21.2)
lambda_travel_time (t-test) 0.51 (6.6)


Glossary.

for short_name, spec in pareto_specs.items():
    print(f'{short_name}\t{spec}')
Model_000000    train_tt_catalog:power
Model_000001    train_tt_catalog:boxcox
Model_000002    train_tt_catalog:linear

Total running time of the script: (0 minutes 0.893 seconds)

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