.. DO NOT EDIT.
.. THIS FILE WAS AUTOMATICALLY GENERATED BY SPHINX-GALLERY.
.. TO MAKE CHANGES, EDIT THE SOURCE PYTHON FILE:
.. "auto_examples/indicators/plot_b04market_shares.py"
.. LINE NUMBERS ARE GIVEN BELOW.

.. only:: html

    .. note::
        :class: sphx-glr-download-link-note

        :ref:`Go to the end <sphx_glr_download_auto_examples_indicators_plot_b04market_shares.py>`
        to download the full example code.

.. rst-class:: sphx-glr-example-title

.. _sphx_glr_auto_examples_indicators_plot_b04market_shares.py:


Calculation of market shares
============================

We use an estimated model to calculate market shares.

Michel Bierlaire, EPFL
Sat Jun 28 2025, 18:06:27

.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 11-21

.. code-block:: Python


    import sys

    from biogeme.biogeme import BIOGEME
    from biogeme.data.optima import normalized_weight, read_data
    from biogeme.models import nested
    from biogeme.results_processing import EstimationResults

    from scenarios import scenario








.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 22-23

Obtain the specification for the default scenario

.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 23-25

.. code-block:: Python

    v, nests, _, _ = scenario()








.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 26-27

Obtain the expression for the choice probability of each alternative.

.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 27-31

.. code-block:: Python

    prob_pt = nested(v, None, nests, 0)
    prob_car = nested(v, None, nests, 1)
    prob_sm = nested(v, None, nests, 2)








.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 32-33

Read the estimation results from the file

.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 33-44

.. code-block:: Python

    try:
        results = EstimationResults.from_yaml_file(
            filename='saved_results/b02estimation.yaml'
        )
    except FileNotFoundError:
        sys.exit(
            'Run first the script b02simulation.py '
            'in order to generate the '
            'file b02estimation.yaml.'
        )








.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 45-46

Read the database

.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 46-48

.. code-block:: Python

    database = read_data()








.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 49-50

We now simulate the choice probabilities and the weight

.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 50-60

.. code-block:: Python

    simulate = {
        'weight': normalized_weight,
        'Prob. PT': prob_pt,
        'Prob. car': prob_car,
        'Prob. SM': prob_sm,
    }

    the_biogeme = BIOGEME(database, simulate)
    simulated_values = the_biogeme.simulate(results.get_beta_values())








.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 61-62

We also calculate confidence intervals for the calculated quantities,

.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 62-65

.. code-block:: Python

    b = results.get_betas_for_sensitivity_analysis()
    left, right = the_biogeme.confidence_intervals(b, 0.9)





.. rst-class:: sphx-glr-script-out

 .. code-block:: none


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.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 66-68

Market shares are calculated using the weighted mean of the
individual probabilities.

.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 70-71

Alternative car

.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 71-81

.. code-block:: Python

    simulated_values['Weighted prob. car'] = (
        simulated_values['weight'] * simulated_values['Prob. car']
    )
    left['Weighted prob. car'] = left['weight'] * left['Prob. car']
    right['Weighted prob. car'] = right['weight'] * right['Prob. car']

    market_share_car = simulated_values['Weighted prob. car'].mean()
    market_share_car_left = left['Weighted prob. car'].mean()
    market_share_car_right = right['Weighted prob. car'].mean()








.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 82-83

Alternative public transportation

.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 83-93

.. code-block:: Python

    simulated_values['Weighted prob. PT'] = (
        simulated_values['weight'] * simulated_values['Prob. PT']
    )
    left['Weighted prob. PT'] = left['weight'] * left['Prob. PT']
    right['Weighted prob. PT'] = right['weight'] * right['Prob. PT']

    market_share_pt = simulated_values['Weighted prob. PT'].mean()
    market_share_pt_left = left['Weighted prob. PT'].mean()
    market_share_pt_right = right['Weighted prob. PT'].mean()








.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 94-95

Alternative slow modes

.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 95-105

.. code-block:: Python

    simulated_values['Weighted prob. SM'] = (
        simulated_values['weight'] * simulated_values['Prob. SM']
    )
    left['Weighted prob. SM'] = left['weight'] * left['Prob. SM']
    right['Weighted prob. SM'] = right['weight'] * right['Prob. SM']

    market_share_sm = simulated_values['Weighted prob. SM'].mean()
    market_share_sm_left = left['Weighted prob. SM'].mean()
    market_share_sm_right = right['Weighted prob. SM'].mean()








.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 106-107

Reporting.

.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 109-110

Car.

.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 110-116

.. code-block:: Python

    print(
        f'Market share for car: {100 * market_share_car:.1f}% '
        f'[{100 * market_share_car_left:.1f}%, '
        f'{100 * market_share_car_right:.1f}%]'
    )





.. rst-class:: sphx-glr-script-out

 .. code-block:: none

    Market share for car: 65.2% [61.4%, 68.8%]




.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 117-118

Public transportation.

.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 118-124

.. code-block:: Python

    print(
        f'Market share for PT:  {100 * market_share_pt:.1f}% '
        f'[{100 * market_share_pt_left:.1f}%, '
        f'{100 * market_share_pt_right:.1f}%]'
    )





.. rst-class:: sphx-glr-script-out

 .. code-block:: none

    Market share for PT:  28.2% [24.5%, 32.2%]




.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 125-126

Slow modes.

.. GENERATED FROM PYTHON SOURCE LINES 126-131

.. code-block:: Python

    print(
        f'Market share for SM:   {100 * market_share_sm:.1f}% '
        f'[{100 * market_share_sm_left:.1f}%, '
        f'{100 * market_share_sm_right:.1f}%]'
    )




.. rst-class:: sphx-glr-script-out

 .. code-block:: none

    Market share for SM:   6.6% [4.3%, 9.2%]





.. rst-class:: sphx-glr-timing

   **Total running time of the script:** (1 minutes 1.181 seconds)


.. _sphx_glr_download_auto_examples_indicators_plot_b04market_shares.py:

.. only:: html

  .. container:: sphx-glr-footer sphx-glr-footer-example

    .. container:: sphx-glr-download sphx-glr-download-jupyter

      :download:`Download Jupyter notebook: plot_b04market_shares.ipynb <plot_b04market_shares.ipynb>`

    .. container:: sphx-glr-download sphx-glr-download-python

      :download:`Download Python source code: plot_b04market_shares.py <plot_b04market_shares.py>`

    .. container:: sphx-glr-download sphx-glr-download-zip

      :download:`Download zipped: plot_b04market_shares.zip <plot_b04market_shares.zip>`


.. only:: html

 .. rst-class:: sphx-glr-signature

    `Gallery generated by Sphinx-Gallery <https://sphinx-gallery.github.io>`_